Aviation, aerospace, air traffic, and airports · suite apt-077-aerospace-technician · generated 2026-09-15T15:43:32.262Z
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This file contains the whole study outline for this suite: every skill it draws on, the full lesson for each of those skills, worked examples, practice tips, a glossary, and where each piece of material comes from. Nothing here is a summary of a page you still have to visit.
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| Mode | Duration | What it is for |
|---|---|---|
| Guided practice | 15 minutes | Untimed, with feedback after every item. |
| Mini-test | 18 minutes | A short timed set for checking pace. |
| Full simulation | 45 minutes | Full length and full time, in one sitting. |
This suite draws on 5 skill constructs. Each one below carries its complete lesson.
Forces, motion, gears, pulleys, levers, fluids, pressure, and basic machines.
Mechanical comprehension is the ability to predict what a physical system will do (which way a gear turns, how hard you have to pull, how far the load actually rises) from forces, moments and the simple machines, rather than from a memorised formula sheet. It carries real weight in apprenticeship entry batteries, military technical selection, and screening for maintenance, machine operation and rigging roles. The same reasoning is daily work on site: sizing a jack, choosing a block-and-tackle arrangement, deciding why a belt slips under load but not at idle. Practice here is device-local: no account, and nothing leaves this device unless you export it.
What you should be able to do after this lesson:
Levers: balance the moments, then name the class: A wheelbarrow carries 60 kg whose centre of mass sits 0.4 m from the wheel axle, and you grip the handles 1.2 m from that same axle. Take moments about the axle: lift force x 1.2 m = 60 kgf x 0.4 m, so the lift force is 60 x 0.4 / 1.2 = 20 kgf, about 196 N. The mechanical advantage is simply the arm ratio, 1.2 / 0.4 = 3. Two traps live in this item. The first is measuring the load arm from your hands instead of from the fulcrum; the arm is always the perpendicular distance to the pivot, and the pivot here is the wheel contact, not the barrow body. The second is calling it a first-class lever because that is the one everyone pictures. A wheelbarrow is second class: fulcrum at one end, load in the middle, effort at the far end, which is why its mechanical advantage is always greater than one. Compare tweezers or a pair of tongs, where the effort sits between fulcrum and load: that is third class, mechanical advantage below one, and you are deliberately trading force away to buy speed and control at the tip. Your own forearm lifting a weight is the same arrangement, which is why a 5 kg dumbbell loads the biceps far more than 5 kg.
Gear trains: tooth counts set speed, meshes set direction: A 12-tooth driver turning at 300 rpm meshes directly with a 36-tooth gear. The ratio is driven teeth over driver teeth, 36/12 = 3:1, so the output turns at 300/3 = 100 rpm and, ignoring friction, carries about three times the torque. One external mesh reverses rotation, so the output turns opposite to the driver. Now drop a 20-tooth idler between them. Step it through: 300 x 12/20 = 180 rpm at the idler, then 180 x 20/36 = 100 rpm at the output. The overall ratio is unchanged at 3:1, the idler's tooth count cancels, but there are now two external meshes, two reversals, so the output turns the SAME way as the driver. That is the whole reason idlers are fitted. The tempting wrong answer treats the idler as another reduction stage and reports 180 rpm or some product of both ratios. The check that never fails: only the first and last gear in a simple train affect the ratio, and the direction depends on whether the number of external meshes is odd (reversed) or even (same). An internal or ring mesh, as in a planetary set, does not reverse at all.
Pulleys: count the rope parts that carry the load: A 200 kg load, about 1,962 N. Hung from a single pulley bolted to a beam, the pulley only changes the direction you pull; both rope parts still meet at a fixed axle, the mechanical advantage is 1, and you pull the full 200 kgf. Hang the pulley on the load instead, with one rope end anchored above and the other in your hands, and two rope parts now support the moving block: mechanical advantage 2, effort about 100 kgf or 981 N, but you must pull 2 m of rope for every 1 m the load rises. Build a tackle with four parts supporting the moving block and the effort falls to 200/4 = 50 kgf, about 490 N, at the cost of 4 m of rope pulled per metre of lift. The trap is counting sheaves instead of supporting parts. A three-sheave arrangement gives three parts if the dead end is made off to the fixed block and four if it is made off to the moving block, and the answer differs by 33 percent. The second trap is treating the figure as delivered force: real sheaves lose a few percent each to bearing and rope friction, so quoted mechanical advantage is the ideal velocity ratio, and the effort you actually feel is higher.
Hydraulics: pressure is shared, force and travel are traded: A jack has a 2 square centimetre input piston and a 50 square centimetre output ram. Push the small piston with 100 N and the pressure in the fluid is 100 / 2 = 50 N per square centimetre, which is 500 kPa. Pascal's principle says every part of the confined fluid sees that same 500 kPa, so the large ram feels 50 N/cm2 x 50 cm2 = 2,500 N. Mechanical advantage 25. Nothing is free: fluid is effectively incompressible, so volume in equals volume out. A 25 cm stroke on the small piston moves 2 x 25 = 50 cubic centimetres, and 50 cubic centimetres spread over a 50 square centimetre ram raises it 1 cm. Twenty-five centimetres of pumping buys one centimetre of lift: exactly the force-times-distance bargain a lever strikes. Candidates lose this item by assuming both pistons travel the same distance, or by concluding the jack manufactures energy. A related item asks about a tank: the pressure at the bottom depends on the height of fluid above and its density, not on the width of the vessel, so a narrow 3 m standpipe reads the same bottom pressure as a 3 m deep swimming pool.
Belts and chains: same belt speed, different rpm: A motor pulley 100 mm in diameter runs at 1,450 rpm and drives a 250 mm pulley through an open V-belt. The quantity that is genuinely shared is belt speed, not rpm, so the driven pulley turns at 1,450 x 100/250 = 580 rpm. Note the direction of the ratio: with gears you divide by driven teeth, with belts you divide by driven diameter, and the arithmetic looks the same only because both are proportional to circumference. An open belt drives both pulleys the same way; a crossed belt reverses the driven pulley, which is the entire point of the classic crossed-belt diagram item. The trap is slip. A flat or V-belt under an overload slips, so the driven speed falls below 580 rpm while the motor holds 1,450: the symptom of a glazed belt or a weak tensioner. A chain or a toothed timing belt physically cannot slip a tooth without damage, which is why camshaft and indexing drives use them and why a belt-driven answer and a chain-driven answer to the same question can legitimately differ.
Springs in series and parallel: the answer most people reverse: Two identical coil springs, each 20 N/mm. Mount them side by side, both carrying the same load, and they act in parallel: stiffness adds to 40 N/mm, so a 400 N load compresses the pair 400/40 = 10 mm. Now stack them end to end, in series. Each spring carries the whole 400 N, force is not split down a chain, so each deflects 400/20 = 20 mm and the total is 40 mm. The combined stiffness is 400/40 = 10 N/mm, half of one spring. Most candidates reverse the two because 'series' sounds like the case where things add. Two reliable checks: in parallel the arrangement is always stiffer than one spring, and in series it is always softer than the softest spring. That is also why suspension designers add a helper spring in parallel to raise rate under load, and why a long slender bolt clamps more forgivingly than a short stubby one carrying the same preload.
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Understanding passages, instructions, policies, technical material, and workplace documents.
Reading comprehension is the ability to take a passage, a policy clause, a procedure or a technical note and answer accurately about what it says, what it means, and how it applies to a case in front of you. It is assessed directly in casework, policy analysis, immigration and language-focused batteries, and it sits underneath almost every other written test as the thing that has to work before anything else can. On the job it is the difference between applying an eligibility rule correctly the first time and generating an appeal. Everything you practise here is stored on this device; there is no account and no upload.
What you should be able to do after this lesson:
Main idea: scope, not truth: Passage: 'When the Kirkwall depot adopted route-optimisation software in 2021, its drivers covered 9 percent fewer kilometres in the first quarter, and fuel spending fell by a similar margin. Delivery times improved on urban routes only; rural routes were unchanged, and two drivers reported longer split shifts. The depot manager has kept the software but now overrides its rural schedules by hand.' Which option states the main idea? (a) 'Route-optimisation software reduces fuel costs.' True, and it is exactly one third of the passage - it drops the mixed results and the override, so it is too narrow. (b) 'The software failed at Kirkwall.' Contradicted: mileage and fuel both improved, and the depot kept it. (c) 'Rural deliveries are harder to optimise than urban ones.' A generalisation the passage never makes; it reports one depot, one year, without explaining why rural routes were unchanged. Too broad. (d) 'At one depot the software produced clear mileage and fuel savings but uneven results elsewhere, so it is now used with manual override.' Correct - it covers all three sentences and no more. The lesson generalises: main-idea distractors are usually wrong for scope, and the two commonest failures are a true detail promoted to the main point, and a reasonable-sounding claim the passage never actually makes.
Reading a clause exactly: and, at least, more than, unless: Rule: 'An employee may claim the remote-working allowance if they work from home on at least three scheduled days per week AND their home is more than 40 km from their assigned office, unless they already receive the travel-card subsidy.' Four cases. Priya works from home four days, lives 52 km away, and receives the travel-card subsidy: not eligible - she satisfies both qualifying conditions, and the 'unless' clause overrides both. Tom works from home three days, lives 38 km away, no subsidy: not eligible, because the connective is AND and 38 is not more than 40. Dan works from home two days, lives 60 km away, no subsidy: not eligible, failing the days condition for the same structural reason. Mira works three days, lives 41 km away, no subsidy: eligible - 'at least three' includes exactly three, and 41 is more than 40. Three separate traps live in one sentence: reading AND as OR under time pressure, treating 'more than 40' as including 40, and forgetting that an exception clause outranks the conditions it follows. The reliable method is to rewrite the rule as a checklist - condition 1, connective, condition 2, then exception - before you look at any case.
Vocabulary in context: the evidence is in the next clause: Sentence: 'The auditor's remarks were characteristically dry, and the board took a full minute to realise she had been criticising them.' Which meaning does 'dry' carry here? (a) arid or lacking moisture, (b) dull and lacking interest, (c) understated and quietly ironic, (d) free of alcohol. Option (b) is the distractor that catches most people, because it is the commonest figurative sense and it half-fits an auditor. But the clause after 'and' is doing the work: a remark that takes a minute to land as criticism is understated, not boring - dullness would not delay recognition, it would only reduce attention. The answer is (c). The general method for vocabulary-in-context items is to ignore the word for a moment, read the rest of the sentence as evidence, and ask what property the sentence requires the word to have. Test items are built so that the most frequent sense of the word is available as an option and is wrong; if the most obvious meaning were correct, the item would measure nothing.
Referents: the former, the latter, and the noun three sentences back: Passage: 'Two remedies were proposed: a fixed surcharge on late filings, and a sliding penalty tied to the amount owed. The committee rejected the former on fairness grounds, noting that it would fall hardest on the smallest filers.' Which remedy was rejected? 'The former' is the first item mentioned, so the fixed surcharge. Candidates who skim choose the sliding penalty because it sits nearer to the pronoun, which is exactly why the item is written this way. Notice also the free consistency check built into the sentence: a fixed amount is the one that lands hardest on small filers, because the same sum is a larger share of a smaller liability, while a penalty tied to the amount owed scales with size by construction. When a passage gives you the reason alongside the reference, use it to confirm the reference. The harder version of this item type replaces 'the former' with a bare 'it' after a sentence containing three noun phrases, and the technique is the same: write the candidate referents in the margin and substitute each one into the sentence to see which produces a sentence the passage could have meant.
Whose view is this? Stance versus report: Passage: 'Supporters of the levy argue that it will fund three new depots within a decade. That projection rests on traffic volumes holding at 2019 levels, which no forecast in the sector now expects.' Question: what is the author's position? (a) The author supports the levy. (b) The author opposes the levy. (c) The author doubts the depot projection. (d) The author has no view. The correct answer is (c). The stance markers are 'rests on', which frames the projection as dependent on a condition, and 'which no forecast now expects', which tells you the condition is not met. Option (b) is the trap, and it is a scope error dressed as a tone question: undermining one argument made by supporters is not opposition to the policy, and the passage says nothing about the levy's other merits or costs. Reading for stance means reading the author's verbs and qualifiers rather than the content of the views being described - a passage can spend four sentences laying out a position it goes on to dismantle in the fifth.
Procedures: when two steps both fire: Instructions: '1. Record the meter reading. 2. If the reading is lower than last month's, do not submit; raise a query instead. 3. Otherwise, submit the reading and file the photo. 4. If the reading is more than double last month's, submit the reading and flag it for review.' Case A: last month 4,180, this month 9,020. Step 2 does not apply, since 9,020 is higher. Step 3 applies: submit and file the photo. Does step 4 also apply? Double 4,180 is 8,360, and 9,020 is more than that, so yes - submit, file the photo, and flag for review. Steps 3 and 4 are not alternatives; nothing in the list makes them exclusive, and both instruct you to submit, which is consistent. Case B: last month 4,180, this month 4,090. Step 2 fires: do not submit, raise a query. Steps 3 and 4 never come into play, because step 3 begins 'otherwise' and step 4's condition is not met either. The trap in case A is treating a numbered list as a decision tree where exactly one branch executes. Read each step's condition independently unless the procedure explicitly says to stop.
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Hazard recognition, safe sequencing, escalation, and risk controls.
Practise recognizing hazards and choosing a safe, proportionate response: protect people, control immediate exposure, use the correct reporting path, and verify that the control is effective.
What you should be able to do after this lesson:
Worked scenario: a damaged machine guard: A guard is loose before a scheduled run. Do not operate the machine or improvise a repair beyond your authorization. Keep people away, isolate or label the equipment only as procedure permits, report the defect to the responsible person, and wait for an approved inspection or repair. A deadline does not remove the hazard.
Risk-triage questions: Ask: what can cause harm, who is exposed now, how severe could the outcome be, what control is available, and who has authority to apply it? The safest answer is not always the most dramatic option; it is the option that controls the real exposure without creating a new hazard.
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Sustained focus, selective attention, and accuracy under time pressure.
Attention and concentration is the skill of still noticing on minute forty of a checking block as reliably as you did on minute two, and of pointing the noticing at the right thing when two things compete. It has three distinguishable parts - selective attention, sustained attention or vigilance, and divided attention - and assessments load them differently: cancellation and checking tasks load vigilance, conflict tasks load selection, and dispatch-style monitoring loads division. It is the construct that decides whether a records clerk, a dispatcher, an air-side controller or a quality inspector catches the one wrong digit in a shift. Practice here is device-local, with no account and nothing uploaded.
What you should be able to do after this lesson:
A cancellation count you can actually check: Count every 7 in this row: 4 7 1 7 7 3 9 7 2 8 7 5 7 6 0 7. Working left to right and tapping once per hit: hits at the second, fourth, fifth, eighth, eleventh, thirteenth and sixteenth positions. That is seven sevens. Two error modes produce nearly all the wrong answers. The first is the adjacent pair - the 7 7 at positions four and five gets counted once, because the eye takes a repeated character as one perceptual object. The second is losing the place after the 9, where the visually similar 9 and 7 force a moment of re-checking and the scan restarts a character early, producing an over-count of eight. The defence for both is a fixed scan path with a physical anchor: a fingertip or cursor moving one character at a time, never jumping back. Re-scanning to check is the thing that creates the double-count, so if you must verify, verify by counting a second time from the RIGHT-hand end and comparing totals, never by re-reading part of the row.
Hits, misses and false alarms: the eager candidate loses: A checking batch contains 300 records, 40 of which are genuinely faulty. Candidate A flags 46 records and 36 of them are truly faulty. Hits 36, misses 40 minus 36 equals 4, false alarms 46 minus 36 equals 10. Candidate B flags 38 and 34 are truly faulty: hits 34, misses 6, false alarms 4. On hit rate alone A wins, 36 out of 40 which is 90 percent against B's 34 out of 40 which is 85 percent. Now apply the scoring rule that most checking tasks actually use, where a false alarm cancels a hit: A scores 36 minus 10 equals 26, B scores 34 minus 4 equals 30. B wins by four despite catching two fewer faults. This is why 'flag anything that looks odd' is bad advice on a scored checking task, and why the first thing to read on a checking item is whether wrong flags are penalised. Your response criterion - how much evidence you demand before flagging - is adjustable, and it should be set from the scoring rule, not from your temperament.
The transposition that passes every gist check: Compare these two lines and decide whether they match. Invoice 4820-7391-06. Invoice 4820-7931-06. They do not: the middle group reads 7391 in the first and 7931 in the second, with the 3 and the 9 swapped. Transpositions are the most-missed error class in record checking for a structural reason - the character SET is identical, the length is identical, the first and last characters of the group are identical, so every fast check the visual system runs comes back clean. Substitutions and omissions change the character inventory and get caught; transpositions do not. Two habits raise the catch rate. Read digits in fixed groups of two rather than as a whole number, so 73-91 against 79-31 becomes a mismatch at the first group instead of a subtle difference somewhere in a four-digit blur. And check groups in a deliberately non-natural order - last group, first group, middle group - because reading left to right lets the confirmation you built at the start carry you through the middle, which is exactly where the swap is usually planted.
Conflict: why reading fights you: The classic demonstration is Stroop's, published in 1935: the word RED printed in blue ink, with the instruction to name the ink colour. Naming takes measurably longer, and errors go up, because reading a familiar word is automatic and cannot be switched off, so the automatic response has to be suppressed before the controlled one can be produced. The same conflict has a numeric version you can test on yourself in a second: how many characters are in the string 4 4 4? The answer is three, and the digit 4 pulls at you the entire way. In an assessment this appears wherever the salient feature and the asked-for feature come apart - a chart where the tallest bar is not the answer to the question, a form where the highlighted field is not the one being verified, a row where the bold total is not what the stem requested. The practical move is to name the target feature out loud before you look - 'ink colour', 'character count', 'the value for March' - because pre-loading the target biases selection before the automatic reading response gets a chance to win.
Where the errors actually appear in a 45-minute block: Errors in a long checking block are not spread evenly. Mackworth's 1948 clock-watching study established the pattern that gives the effect its name: detection declines over a prolonged watch, with the sharpest deterioration early rather than at the very end. Practically, on a 45-minute self-timed checking block, expect your per-minute error rate in minutes 20 to 45 to run visibly above minutes 1 to 20 even though nothing about the material changed, and expect the subjective sense of effort to lag the actual decline, so it will not feel like you are getting worse. Two things work against it. Break the block into three fifteen-minute segments with a ten-second reset between them - look away, unfocus, breathe out - which costs thirty seconds of a 45-minute block, about one percent of the time, and buys back more than that in caught errors. And score your practice by segment rather than as one number, because a single overall accuracy figure hides exactly the information you need: whether your problem is skill, which shows as flat error rate, or endurance, which shows as a rising one.
Two streams: alternate on a cadence, do not try to merge: A dispatch-style monitoring task: keep a running total of the numbers announced on channel one while watching channel two for the code word AMBER. Genuine simultaneity is not available - the two tasks compete for the same control resource - so the choice is not whether to alternate but whether to alternate deliberately or accidentally. Deliberate looks like this: fix the arithmetic to a rhythm, updating the total only at each announcement and holding a single number between updates, which frees the gaps for channel two. If the total is 34 and the next announcement is 7, you spend under a second reaching 41 and then you are free again. Accidental looks like re-deriving the running total from the beginning because you did not trust it, which locks up the whole window and is when AMBER goes past unheard. The measurable failure of divided attention is almost never a failure to hear the target; it is a failure to have any spare capacity at the moment it arrived. The related phenomenon worth knowing is inattentional blindness, illustrated by Simons and Chabris in 1999: an unexpected and perfectly visible event is missed entirely when attention is committed to a counting task.
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Evaluating evidence, assumptions, arguments, credibility, and alternative explanations.
Critical thinking assessments ask you to take an argument apart: what is being concluded, what it rests on, what evidence would settle it, and whether a proposed conclusion actually follows. Published critical-thinking batteries typically run five task types - inference, recognition of assumptions, deduction, interpretation, and evaluation of arguments - and they are deliberately built so that agreeing with a conclusion and judging the argument as strong come apart. The construct is heavily weighted in policy analysis, audit, legal, investigative and graduate selection, and it is the same skill that stops a plausible chart from turning into a bad decision. Practice stays on this device; there is no account and nothing is uploaded unless you export it.
What you should be able to do after this lesson:
The negation test finds assumptions; nothing else does: Argument: 'The council should fit bin sensors across the district. In the trial depot they cut collection trips by a fifth.' Candidate assumption A: 'The trial depot's waste pattern is broadly representative of the rest of the district.' Negate it - suppose the trial depot is nothing like the rest of the district - and the argument collapses, because a result that does not transfer supports nothing about the district. So A is a required assumption. Candidate assumption B: 'Bin sensors are the cheapest available technology for this purpose.' Negate it - suppose they are the most expensive - and the argument still stands as given, since it argued from a reduction in trips, not from cost. B is not required; it would strengthen a cost-based argument that was never made. Candidate C: 'Fewer collection trips reduce total operating cost.' Negate it and the recommendation loses its point, so C is required too, even though the argument never mentions cost. That last case is the one candidates miss, because the required assumption is what bridges the evidence to the recommendation, and bridging assumptions are by definition unstated. The failure mode across this whole item type is picking statements that support the conclusion instead of statements the argument cannot survive without.
Base rates: 90 percent accurate, 15 percent right: A production line runs an automated defect test. Defects occur in 1 percent of units. The test flags 90 percent of genuinely defective units, and wrongly flags 5 percent of good units. A unit has just been flagged - how likely is it to be defective? Work in whole units rather than probabilities. Take 10,000 units: 100 are defective and 9,900 are good. Of the 100 defective, the test flags 90. Of the 9,900 good, it wrongly flags 5 percent, which is 495. Total flags: 90 + 495 = 585. Of those, 90 are genuine, so the answer is 90 / 585 = 15.4 percent. Better than the 1 percent base rate, and nowhere near the 90 percent that intuition offers. The error has a name - confusing the probability of a flag given a defect with the probability of a defect given a flag - and it has a practical consequence: the rework queue has to be sized for 585 units a batch, not 100, and 495 of the 585 units sitting in it are perfectly good. Whenever a test, screening rule or model accuracy figure appears in an item, ask how many of the negatives there are, because with a rare condition the false positives from a large clean population swamp the true positives from a small affected one.
Three alternative explanations, and the comparison that settles it: Claim: 'Employees who attended the optional resilience workshop took 30 percent fewer sick days last year, so the workshop works.' Alternative one, selection: attendance was optional, so the people who signed up may have been the healthier and more engaged to begin with, and would have taken fewer sick days regardless. Alternative two, reverse direction: employees who were frequently unwell were the least able to attend a full-day workshop, so illness determined attendance rather than the other way round. Alternative three, a common third factor: the workshop ran on Thursday afternoons at head office, so attendance largely tracks being an office-based rather than shift-based worker, and shift workers take more sick leave for reasons that have nothing to do with resilience training. What would settle it: randomly assigning the offer to half the workforce and comparing the two groups. Failing that, the cheapest useful check already exists in the payroll data - compare attendees' and non-attendees' sick days in the year before the workshop. If attendees were already 30 percent lower, selection is doing the entire job. The habit worth building is to name the comparison group before you accept any before-and-after number.
Deduction: affirming the consequent versus modus tollens: Rule: 'If an invoice is over 10,000 euro, it requires two signatures.' Argument A: 'This invoice has two signatures, therefore it is over 10,000 euro.' Invalid - this is affirming the consequent. The rule makes two signatures necessary for large invoices; it says nothing that prevents a cautious manager from double-signing a 400 euro invoice, so a two-signature invoice of any size is consistent with the rule. Argument B: 'This invoice has only one signature, therefore it is not over 10,000 euro.' Valid - this is modus tollens, denying the consequent to deny the antecedent, and it holds assuming the rule was followed. Argument C: 'This invoice is not over 10,000 euro, therefore it does not have two signatures.' Invalid again, denying the antecedent. Two further points that deduction items test directly. First, validity is about form alone: 'All banks close on Sundays; Riverton Mutual is a bank; therefore Riverton Mutual closes on Sundays' is perfectly valid even if the first premise is false, and a valid argument with a false premise can deliver a false conclusion. Second, in these items you must accept the premises as given even when you know them to be untrue, because the question is whether the conclusion follows, not whether it is true.
Interpretation: what a survey figure does and does not license: Data: all 1,200 employees of a firm were surveyed. 62 percent said they would accept a four-day week at 90 percent pay. Of those who said yes, 71 percent were under 35. Conclusion one: 'A majority of this firm's employees would accept the trade.' This follows - 62 percent of a complete census of the firm is a majority, and the conclusion is properly limited to this firm. Conclusion two: 'A majority of the firm's under-35 employees would accept the trade.' This does not follow, and the arithmetic shows why. Sixty-two percent of 1,200 is 744 accepters, and 71 percent of 744 is about 528 accepters aged under 35. That is the composition of the accepters, not the acceptance rate within the under-35 group, and without knowing how many under-35s the firm employs the rate is undetermined: if there are 900, the rate is 528 / 900 = 59 percent; if there are 600, it is 88 percent; if there were 1,100 the rate would be below half. Conclusion three: 'The firm should move to a four-day week.' This does not follow either - a stated preference about pay says nothing about output, shift cover, customer hours or cost. Notice that conclusion two is the base-rate error from the screening example, wearing survey clothing.
Strong and weak arguments on the same question: Question: should the agency publish raw inspection scores for every site? Strong argument for: 'In the neighbouring authority, publication was followed by a measurable fall in repeat violations, which is the stated aim of the inspection regime.' It is directly about this decision, it addresses the regime's own objective, and it offers evidence - and if true it would change your view. Weak argument for: 'Yes, because transparency is always good.' Sweeping, unsupported, and it would apply identically to publishing anything at all, which is the tell. Strong argument against: 'Raw scores omit the severity weighting, so a site with one critical failure can rank above a site with six minor ones, and a member of the public cannot see the difference.' Specific, mechanistic, directly about the proposal, and it would change your view. Weak argument against: 'No, because businesses will object.' It may be true and it may matter politically, but it does not bear on whether publication achieves the regime's aim, and no evidence is offered. Two tests separate strong from weak: is the argument about the exact question asked, and would accepting it change the decision? Note that you can hold a firm personal view on publication and still be required to mark the argument on the other side as the strong one - that split is what the item type is measuring.
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